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Canonical directions

  To assess how much information about tex2html_wrap_inline3958 we expect to receive by observing D, we may first identify the particular linear combination tex2html_wrap_inline3960 for which we expect the adjustment by D to be most informative in the sense that tex2html_wrap_inline3613 maximises the resolution tex2html_wrap_inline3962 over all elements tex2html_wrap_inline3964 with non-zero prior variance. (Note from equation 10, that maximising the resolution is equivalent to minimising the ratio of adjusted to prior variance.) We may then proceed to identify directions for which we expect progressively less information. This is equivalent to defining collections of canonical variables between tex2html_wrap_inline3958 and tex2html_wrap_inline3968 . We make the following definition.

DEFINITION The tex2html_wrap_inline3623 canonical direction for the adjustment of B by D is the linear combination tex2html_wrap_inline3629 which maximises tex2html_wrap_inline3962 over all elements tex2html_wrap_inline3964 with non-zero prior variance which are uncorrelated a priori with tex2html_wrap_inline3974 . We scale each tex2html_wrap_inline3629 to have prior expectation zero and prior variance one. The values

displaymath3952

are termed the canonical resolutions. The number of canonical directions that we may define is equal to the rank, r(B), of the variance matrix of the elements of B.

The quantities tex2html_wrap_inline3980 are mutually incorrelated. It is also the case that the adjusted expectations, tex2html_wrap_inline3982 are also mutually uncorrelated, and each tex2html_wrap_inline3651 is uncorrelated with each tex2html_wrap_inline4028

The canonical resolutions may be calculated as the eigenvalues of the resolution matrix, tex2html_wrap_inline3655 , defined as

  equation609

We may calculate tex2html_wrap_inline3990 by finding the normed eigenvectors, tex2html_wrap_inline3992 , ordered by eigenvalues tex2html_wrap_inline3994 , of tex2html_wrap_inline3655 , so that

displaymath3953

The collection tex2html_wrap_inline3998 forms a ``grid'' of directions over tex2html_wrap_inline3820 , summarising the effects of the adjustment. We expect to learn most about those linear combinations of the elements of B which have large correlations with those canonical directions with large resolutions. The exact relation is as follows.

For any X in tex2html_wrap_inline3820 ,

  equation623

where

displaymath3601


next up previous
Next: The system resolution uncertainty Up: Adjusting beliefs by data Previous: Adjusted belief structures

David Wooff
Thu Oct 15 11:56:54 BST 1998