Durham University Statistics and Probability Group
Durham University Statistics and Probability

Previous Talks 2016/2017

Wednesday 17th May 2017:

1pm, CM105

A naive introduction to Imprecise Probability

Speaker: Junbin Chen, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University

Abstract

In this talk, the speaker is going to introduce the main concepts and ideas behind imprecise probability. He is, then, going to present how it relates to the precise probability and where they differ. Afterwards, he is going to talk about the motivation for choosing IP and discuss possible applications. Finally, he is going to briefly give us a demonstration of the use of the NPI technique within the imprecise probability framework.

Wednesday 10th May 2017:

1pm, CM105

Drunken Heroine Quest: A Fantasy World Application of the Theory of Random Walks

Speaker: Chak Hei Lo, supervised by Prof. M. Menshikov and Dr. A. Wade

Abstract

Our research on random walk problems has a lot of useful applications in ecology, psychology, computer science, physics, chemistry, biology as well as economics. However, most of them are too serious for this presentation. Instead, we will guide you through some basics of random walk theory, in a format of a fantasy story... Once upon a time, the brave Edward went on a fearful quest of defeating a dragon to win the heart of the beautiful Dorothy. After falling foul of the curse of the Chief Warlock Albus, Edward is trapped in a skyscraping tower of unknown location in the boundless land of Hyrule. It is now up to Dorothy to break the curse to free her inamorato. With Edward nowhere to be found, alcohol seems to be the only way for Dorothy to pass the days. Without a particular direction nor a systematic search, a random walk journey begins. Are you ready for this exhilarating and unforgettable adventure? All are welcome. Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/mathematics.html Mathematics is the art of giving the same name to different things. - Henri Poincare

Wednesday 3rd May 2017:

1pm, CM105

Using a genetic algorithm to find optimal parameters for solar surface models

Speaker: Tim Whitbread, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University

Abstract

In this talk I will give a brief basic overview of Solar Physics and why we believe studying the Sun is important, before introducing so-called surface flux transport models and the genetic algorithm I have been using to calibrate them. Trying to match real data introduces observational uncertainty and so I will also discuss how this has been incorporated into the optimization process.

Wednesday 8th April 2017:

1pm, CM105

Bayesian Deconvolution in Well Test Analysis

Speaker: Themistoklis Botsas, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University

Abstract

This work focuses on the development of a Bayesian approach to deconvolution in the context of well test analysis, a set of methodologies used in petroleum engineering that provides information about the properties and the structure of the reservoir and the wellbore using pressure and flow rate data. In particular, we are working on the construction of a suitable and meaningful Bayesian framework for the deconvolution in association with Makrov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Wednesday 22nd February 2017:

1pm, CM105

Random walks, some properties and examples - a lighthearted introduction

Speaker: James McRedmond, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University

Abstract

Random walks play an important role in many areas of mathematics. Some functionals of random walks such as the perimeter length of the convex hull, and the diameter of the walk have been considered by several authors, I will present a brief history of these results. We have filled some gaps in the literature, so I will explain these new results and others which, by using different methods, have reduced the assumptions necessary on some of the previously known formulae. The talk will be very easy-going, and should be enjoyable even without any prior knowledge of the topic! This work includes collaboration with Chak Hei Lo and Clare Wallace, and is supervised by Andrew Wade and Ostap Hryniv.

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