**David Wooff and Michael Goldstein University of Durham
[B/D] Home
Page: http://fourier.dur.ac.uk:8000/stats/bd/
**

Bayes linear methodology provides a quantitative structure for
expressing our beliefs and systematic methods for adjusting these
beliefs given observational data. In this report we introduce two
aspects of the methodology. Firstly, we discuss Bayes linear influence
diagrams, which are tools for representing and interpreting both the
qualititative and quantitative structure. Secondly, we address the basic
role of exchangeability. The computer language [B/D] (an acronym for
*beliefs adjusted by data*) has been developed to implement Bayes
linear methods, and can be used to construct such influence diagrams. In
this technical report, we show how [B/D] is used to generate various
types of influence diagram for a simple, but non-trivial, problem. We
also present an example which shows how [B/D] is used to exploit
exchangeability. The example concerns a collection of exchangeable
dynamic linear models, representing the reduction of alumina by
electrolysis.

- Introduction
- Bayes linear influence diagrams
- Exploring sensitivity for exchangeable regressions
- Acknowledgements
- References
- About this document ...

Thu Oct 15 11:27:04 BST 1998